Current Agri Trade Scenario in India

In the last five years (2013-2017), world agricultural trade has been relatively stagnant, mainly due to the fall in global prices. The sharp drop in oil prices has been a major contributor to the softening of global commodity prices for agricultural products. However, the volume of trade, which shows strong demand in the global market, did not decrease. India's agricultural exports 1 decreased by -5 percent CAGR from US$ 36 billion in FY13 to US$ 31 billion in FY172 due to the effect of the fall in global prices and back to back to drought during 2014-15 and 2015-16. Nevertheless, with normal production in 2016-17, India's agricultural exports have recovered significantly despite the tight global market situation. A comparative analysis of the ten-year agricultural exports from India reveals an encouraging picture. Between 2007 and 2016, Indian agricultural exports increased by 9 percent as compared to China (8 percent), Brazil (5.4 percent) and the US (5.1 percent). Exports of coffee, cereals and horticultural products have doubled during this period, while exports of meat , fish and processed products have increased between three and five times. Despite this, India's agricultural exports are lower than those of countries with much smaller agricultural land, such as Thailand and Indonesia.

Today, Indian agriculture differs structurally from what it was during the era of the Green Revolution. The annual farm Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) of India expanded from about US$ 25 billion to over US$ 100 billion between the early 1970s and the late 1990s. Growth was slow during this initial period and it was largely cereal-centered, limited to wheat and rice. However, agricultural production in the country increased from US$ 101 billion between 2000 and 2014 to about US$ 367 billion, driven mainly by high-value sectors such as horticulture, dairy, poultry and inland aquaculture. No other nation has a base of food and non-food agriculture more diverse than India, and this creates the optimism that India can be a leading player in the world trade in agriculture.

India's export basket is a diversified mix of rice (US$ 6 billion), marine products (US$ 5.8 billion) and meat (US$ 4 billion), together accounting for ~52% of total agribusiness exports While India holds a leading position in the global trade of the above-mentioned agribusiness products, its agribusiness export basket accounts for just over 2% of world agribusiness, estimated at US$ 1.37 trillion. India's broadly targeted food security and price stabilisation are an important reason for this apparently inward-looking policy.

Given that most of its exports are of low value, raw or semi-processed and marketed in bulk, India has remained at the lower end of the global agri-export value chain. India's high-value and value-added agri-products account for less than 15% of its agri-export basket, compared to 25% in the US and 49% in China. Due to a lack of uniformity in quality, standardisation and its inability to reduce losses across the value chain, India is unable to export its vast horticultural produce. Considering the globalisation of value.

In order to boost exports of high margins, value added and branded processed products, it is imperative that the country make concerted efforts. The policy will involve, after meeting domestic demand, a paradigm shift from residual exports to targeted exports according to overseas market preferences.

It would identify top exportable agricultural commodities and products on the basis of current global and Indian trade. Each product will be analysed in detail based on Five key criteria are used: global trade, five-year impact potential, current competitiveness of India, value-adding scope and future market potential. For specific farming, infrastructure and market intervention, about ten commodities would be shortlisted as focus commodities.

Preliminary analysis shows a very high potential for: shrimps, meat, basmati & non-basmati rice, grapes, bananas, pomegranate, vegetables including potatoes, processed / value-added products, cashews, value-added plant / medicinal herbs including herbal medicines, nutraceuticals based on foods, aromatics, spices (cumin, turmeric, pepper), ethnic & organic foods.